Based on 21,180 purchase trades with verified 3-month return data (from 2014-01-03). This is a subset of all scored trades — purchases that are old enough to have a complete 3-month return.
1. The alert tier works.
Trades scoring 70+ — the ones that actually trigger an alert — outperform
the S&P 500. Across 22 historical purchases in this tier:
+13.5% alpha at 6 months
and +2.3% at 3 months,
with a 55% win rate on 3-month returns.
The score breakdown table below shows how performance varies per tier.
2. Most consistent sector-specific edge:
Tim Moore
in Information Technology
— 6 purchases across 3 stocks,
100% win rate,
+53.4% alpha vs. S&P 500.
This is the best member × sector combination, not the highest overall performer.
A member can dominate one sector without ranking first overall (and vice versa) — see the tables below.
For context: across all score levels combined, the average congressional
purchase returns -9.6% alpha — this is the weighted
average of all rows in the score breakdown table below. Most congressional trades
are routine and carry no signal. The score exists to separate the exceptions from the noise.
⚠ Past performance is not a guarantee. Sample sizes are still limited. Always do your own due diligence.
Alpha vs. S&P 500 by score tier — purchases only, with verified returns. Higher score = better alpha, consistently.
| Score | Trades | Alpha 3m | Alpha 6m | Win% 3m |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80–100 alert zone | 4 | +15.5% | +36.9% | 50% |
| 70–79 alert zone | 18 | -0.6% | +7.7% | 56% |
| 60–69 | 62 | -0.6% | -1.7% | 56% |
| 50–59 | 124 | +0.1% | +5.4% | 56% |
| <50 | 20969 | -9.7% | -10.9% | 36% |
↔ Swipe to see more columns
| Sector | Tr. | Alpha 3m | Alpha 6m | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology | 2893 | -1.6% | +0.7% | 48% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 1464 | -5.0% | -5.3% | 45% |
| Industrials | 1571 | -8.1% | -9.1% | 36% |
| Communication Services | 1072 | -8.5% | -7.9% | 43% |
| Health Care | 1825 | -9.5% | -10.4% | 34% |
| Materials | 395 | -10.3% | -11.5% | 33% |
| Financials | 2058 | -10.8% | -12.2% | 33% |
| Consumer Staples | 1151 | -13.7% | -15.4% | 24% |
| Utilities | 424 | -16.2% | -17.4% | 17% |
| Real Estate | 288 | -16.5% | -19.0% | 18% |
| Energy | 597 | -16.7% | -18.7% | 27% |
Overall best performers across all their trades, regardless of sector. A member can rank high here without being the best in any specific sector.
↔ Swipe to see more columns
| Member | Tr. | Alpha 3m | Alpha 6m | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dave McCormick
R
|
23 | +7.5% | +1.6% | 83% |
Cleo Fields
D
|
182 | +6.6% | +0.8% | 75% |
Tim Moore
R
|
154 | +2.7% | +5.4% | 71% |
Austin Scott
R
|
33 | +2.5% | -7.4% | 42% |
Greg Landsman
D
|
55 | +2.0% | -0.9% | 71% |
Brian Mast
R
|
29 | +1.6% | -2.7% | 34% |
Julie Johnson
D
|
69 | +0.5% | +1.6% | 65% |
Thomas Kean
R
|
53 | -0.4% | -1.7% | 57% |
Byron Donalds
R
|
34 | -0.7% | -5.5% | 59% |
Rich McCormick
R
|
58 | -0.9% | -2.6% | 47% |
Members who consistently outperform in a specific sector — not their overall average. This can surface a specialist who crushes it in one area but looks average in the overall ranking above. Click a row to see all trades by that member.
↔ Swipe to see more columns
| Member | Sector | Trades | Stocks | +3m | Alpha vs. S&P 500 | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Tim Moore
R
|
Information Technology | 6 | 3 | +61.0% | +53.4% | 100% |
|
Tim Moore
R
|
Health Care | 12 | 2 | +27.1% | +19.0% | 100% |
Bruce Westerman
R
|
Information Technology | 8 | 8 | +34.1% | +15.4% | 100% |
Dan Sullivan
R
|
Information Technology | 6 | 5 | +13.5% | +13.2% | 67% |
Susie Lee
D
|
Communication Services | 5 | 3 | +14.6% | +11.9% | 60% |
Jefferson Shreve
R
|
Information Technology | 40 | 24 | +24.3% | +11.5% | 85% |
|
Julie Johnson
D
|
Information Technology | 7 | 6 | +16.4% | +11.2% | 86% |
Kelly Morrison
D
|
Communication Services | 5 | 1 | +23.2% | +10.9% | 100% |
|
Byron Donalds
R
|
Information Technology | 9 | 8 | +19.7% | +10.8% | 78% |
Michael Guest
R
|
Information Technology | 7 | 6 | +14.8% | +10.8% | 86% |
Ron Wyden
D
|
Financials | 5 | 2 | +22.7% | +10.4% | 100% |
|
Tim Moore
R
|
Communication Services | 7 | 2 | +12.5% | +10.3% | 86% |
Dan Goldman
D
|
Information Technology | 15 | 10 | +16.2% | +10.3% | 80% |
|
Byron Donalds
R
|
Consumer Discretionary | 5 | 4 | +18.5% | +9.8% | 100% |
Robert Bresnahan
R
|
Information Technology | 55 | 29 | +19.0% | +8.5% | 84% |
